I have a few simple thumb-rules

If most people in our pro-people circles were right, we would have a fairer, equitable, and just society years ago. We don't have such a society precisely because there's a lot of cognitive lapses in the pro-people circles.

All human beings are animal brains with plenty of cognitive biases and other traps. All of us are struggling all the time with these. Questioning ourselves all the time is the one way to help ourselves out of our human condition.

There is no difference between an elite group of tech-bros stoned on weed and worrying about the state of the world, and a democratic group of health activists dreaming about an alternate social reality (except perhaps the weed). In either case, the material reality of the world doesn't change.

Let the only indicator of the right path be change in material reality. Either people coming out of ill health (ideal) or at least elite people coming out of their cocoons and calling out the system and actually making sacrifices (not a good proxy, but maybe useful)